July Closes with a VIX Spike as Tech Valuations Hit a Wall
Heavy distribution in mega-cap tech overshadowed a solid PCE print, forcing a defensive rotation into staples and utilities as the monthly candle closes.
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The July finale was defined by a violent rejection at the upper Bollinger bands for the Nasdaq 100. Despite a benign PCE reading that initially sparked a pre-market bid, the tape turned sour thirty minutes after the bell. Large-scale distribution was evident in NVDA and MSFT, with sell-side pressure accelerating as soon as the $195.50 level broke on the QQQ. The failure to hold the morning gap suggests that the 'soft landing' narrative is fully priced, leaving the market vulnerable to 'sell the news' dynamics heading into August.
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