Semi Slump Meets Late-Day Squeeze: NVDA Defends the 20-Day EMA

The morning session belonged to the bears as a hotter-than-expected PPI print triggered a rapid deleveraging event in the high-beta semi space. NVDA and AMD saw aggressive selling at the open, breaching yesterday’s lows and flushing weak hands before finding institutional support at the 20-day exponential moving average. The tape remained heavy until the European close, where a noticeable shift in delta suggested the sell-off had exhausted its immediate momentum.

Technological resilience defined the afternoon. While the indices flirted with a trend-day down, the heavyweights clawed back 60% of their initial losses. TSLA provided the necessary diversion, catching a bid on rumored supply chain efficiencies that ignited a short-covering rally, dragging the QQQ back toward the flat line. Traders who stayed glued to the tape saw the rotation from laggard energy names back into mega-cap tech as the 'buy the dip' reflex remains the dominant market psychology.

Looking toward tomorrow's open, the focus remains on the $475 level in the SPY. Today’s hammer candle on the daily chart suggests a potential bear trap, but volume was thin on the recovery, warranting caution. Keep an eye on the VIX; despite the intraday volatility, it failed to close above 18, implying that the broader structural uptrend is intact despite the headline noise.

Today's edge: Today’s edge: Spotting the reversal required monitoring real-time block trades in the QQQ via StocksLeak to identify where the selling pressure hit a wall.